The BDL Bookie is a weekly report with the primary goal being to make use of the game's financial aspect.
It was created by PHiN halfway through Season 4, while players were discussing different ways to make each player's salary an actual part of the game. Many ideas were thrown and rejected due to the fact that they would significantly increase the game's complexity. But the concept of an independent report that would not demand any extra effort from the players was well received.
The BDL Bookie works in a similar way to any betting system. Every week, players will place bets on specific NHL teams and will be rewarded according to the NHL team's performance in comparison to the other teams picked.
The Weekly Income and Bets
As an example, a "Player X" will be used, with a season salary of $ 1.3M, to simplify the calculations.
- Player X has a season salary of $ 1.3M.
- As of Season 5, BDL seasons are 13-weeks long. This means that a player should have a steady weekly income of $ [Player Salary] / 13.
- In Player X's case, his weekly income is $ 1.3M / 13 = $ 100k.
In the BDL, every player picks an NHL team per week. This picked NHL team will be considered Player X's bet for the week in the Bookie. His weekly income ($ 100k) will be considered the value of his bet.
The Money Pool
The Money Pool is the amount of money that shall be distributed amongst the week's winners. That Pool is consisted by:
- The sum of all bets, from all players (including benched picks).
- The sum of the weekly income of all players who have missed the picking deadline.
The money is distributed amongst the winners according to the Payout Odds from their bets.
The 3 highest scoring teams of the week (amongst the picked teams) are considered the winners of the week. All players who have placed bets in any one of those teams will be financially rewarded according to a series of factors, most notably 3:
- The team's overall position in the week's results (1st, 2nd or 3rd highest score)
- The team's actual performance (relative number of goals scored, in comparison to the other teams)
- The amount of players placing bets on the same team (the more popular a pick, the lower its payout)
Week 10 of Season 4 will be used as an example of Payout Odds calculation:
In that particular week, there were:
- 47 players with posted picks (placed bets)
- The sum of all bets was $ 2,620,848
The betting distribution was as follows:
|TEAM||# of Picks||Bets Amount|
Amongst all these teams, the 3 highest scoring ones at the end of the week were:
- COL - 20 Goals Scored
- CHI - 15 Goals Scored
- ATL - 14 Goals Scored
Therefore, all the money from the Pool shall be distributed amongst all players who have placed bets in either one of those 3 teams.
Factoring the Goals Scored and Overall Position
The calculation of the Payout Odds can be divided in two parts.
First, the relative performance of the teams is properly factored, so that teams who outscore their competitors by a larger margin get a bigger advantage in the odds.
Two elements are then factored in: The Overall Position and the Relative Score:
|Team||Goals Scored||Score Factor||Position Factor||Factored Goals|
The Score Factor
It is a multiplier that compares the team's score in the week with the score from the lowest payout team.
COL's Score Factor is 20 / 14 = 1.43
CHI's Score Factor is 15 / 14 = 1.07
ATL's Score Factor is 14 / 14 = 1.00
The Position Factor
It is an arbitrary multiplier to enhance the importance of being the Highest Scoring team of the week, as opposed to the second-highest or third-highest. The default values are 3-2-1, and in case of ties the highest value is used (ie, in case two teams tie for 2nd-highest, the Position Factors will be 3-2-2, as opposed to 3-1-1 or 3-1.5-1.5)
The Factored Goals
The Factored Goals is the product of the Goals Scored by a team and the two factors used.
COL - 20 x 1.43 x 3.00 = 85.80
CHI - 15 x 1.07 x 2.00 = 32.10
ATL - 14 x 1.00 x 1.00 = 14.00
The purpose of these factors is to make sure the difference in performance between the highest-scoring team of the week (at 20 goals) and the 3rd-highest-scoring team of the week (at 14 goals) is properly established and recognized.
Factoring the Value and Number of Bets on a Team
The second part of calculating the odds is to establish a proper division of the Money Pool amongst the winners based on how many times a team was picked, and the total amount that was bet on a team.
After the first calculations, the amount bet is taken in consideration:
|Team||Factored Goals||Amount Bet||Factored Bets||Betting Share|
|COL||85.80||$ 781,906||$ 67,087,587||79.03 %|
|CHI||32.10||$ 138,461||$ 4,444,615||5.24 %|
|ATL||14.00||$ 954,326||$ 13,360,576||15.74 %|
The Amount Bet is the sum of all bets on each team. The Factored Bets is the product of all the bets and the factored goals.
COL - 85.80 x 781,906 = 67,087,587
CHI - 32.10 x 138,461 = 4,444,615
ATL - 14 x 954,326 = 13,360,576
The Betting Share is a simple percentage of what each team's amount of Factored Bets represents from the total sum of all Factored Bets.
This is done to make sure the same criteria used to recognize a team's superior performance in goals is carried over to the rest of the calculations.
The next part of the calculation is done to give credit to players who place "off-the-grid" bets. The less people place the bets on the same team, the higher the boost that pick will have over their final share of the Money Pool:
|Team||Betting Share||# Picks||Pick Factor||Factored Share|
|COL||79.03 %||14||- 0.24||77.14 %|
|CHI||5.24 %||2||+ 0.71||10.91 %|
|ATL||15.74 %||17||- 0.48||11.96 %|
Picks will get a positive or negative factor depending on how "popular" they were. That factor is calculated as follows:
Pick Average - (14 + 2 + 17) = 11
Pick Standard Deviation - Std Dev from 14;2;17 = 8
The Pick Factor is defined as:
( [Pick Average] - '[# of Picks] ) x ( [Pick Std Dev] / 100 )
COL Pick Factor : ( 11 - 14 ) x 0.08 = - 0.24
CHI Pick Factor : ( 11 - 2 ) x 0.08 = + 0.71
ATL Pick Factor : (11 - 17 ) x 0.08 = - 0.48
That way, the CHI gets a bonus for being "off-the-grid", at the expense of both COL and ATL picks for being "obvious". That bonus is then factored into the actual share of the Money Pool to be distributed, as follows:
Factored Share = Betting Share + ( Pick Factor x [Pick Std Dev] ) / 100
COL Factored Share : 79.03 % + ( -0.24 x 8 ) / 100 = 77.14 %
CHI Factored Share : 5.24 % + ( + 0.71 x 8 ) / 100 = 10.91 %
ATL Factored Share : 15.74 % + ( -0.48 x 8 ) / 100 = 11.96 %
As a result, the Factored Share tries to better reflect a proper payout odd for players who place bets on unexpected teams.
Defining the Payout Odds
The Factored Share represents the actual share of the Money Pool which should be distributed amongst the players who bet on each team. Considering the Money Pool for this week was $ 2,620,848 , the share for each team shall be:
|Team||Bet Amount||Factored Share||Pool's Cut||Payout Odds|
|COL||$ 781,906||77.14 %||$ 1,357,461||1.74|
|CHI||$ 138,461||10.91 %||$ 219,833||1.59|
|ATL||$ 954,326||11.96 %||$ 1,043,553||1.09|
Once each winner team has their appropriate share of the Money Pool defined, the Payout Odds are a simple result of the division between that share and the original amount bet, so that each player's bet has a common multiplier for their individual earnings for the week.